END OF 2018 OPEN ENROLLMENT PERIOD (42 states)

Time: D H M S

New Hampshire: 45.5K effectuated QHPs, 1,769 SHOP enrollments

This article about New Hampshire reveals 3 noteworthy bits of information: First, it looks like at least one of the 37 HC.gov states will be reporting their exchange enrollments monthly during the off-season, even if the HHS Dept. itself refuses to do so:

The New Hampshire Insurance Departmentrecently began requiring insurance companies selling plans through the marketplace to submit monthly enrollment numbers.

Second, here's the first results of those monthly reports:

 According to the latest numbers, a total of 45,504 people had signed up for plans in New Hampshire by April 1

This is interesting, because the official ASPE report from March 10th has New Hampshire listed as having 53,005 QHP selections as of February 22nd. There have also been some number of additional enrollees since then, either via the #ACATaxTime special enrollment period; HHS reported 36,000 across all 37 states, which likely translates to perhaps 200-300 for New Hampshire, assuming the ratio is consistent with their 0.6% open enrollment total, plus perhaps 1,500 or so via normal off-season Qualifying Life Events as of March 31st. That means the grand total of QHP selections for NH should be something like 54,700, give or take.

The fact that only 45,504 of these folks are actually enrolled as of April 1st makes it sound like only 83% of them are paying up (vs. the 88% I've confirmed over and over again as being the average), but there's an important point to bear in mind.

As shown on The Graph, the number of currently effectuated enrollees will always be somewhat lower than either the total or paid QHPs, due partially to the start-date lag time but mostly because of normal attrition (remember, just as people are still enrolling during the off-season, some current enrollees are also dropping their policies, even after just 1-2 months in some cases, due to other life changes). Nationally, I estimate that around 10 million people are currently effectuated out of the 12.1 million who have likely selected QHPs...or about 83%, which just happens to coincide with the actual NH number.

The third data point is the ever-elusive SHOP enrollment number, which has only been released for a handful of states so far:

The Small Business Health Options Program, also called SHOP, is available to companies with 50 employees or fewer. It opened last year, but technology problems hampered its debut, and it wasn't available online until recently. In January, only 36 businesses had signed up for plans covering 262 employees and family members. By the end of March, that had increased to 215 businesses covering 1,769 employees and family members.