The Graph as of 11/18/15: 1.18M confirmed, 1.76M estimated
2019 OPEN ENROLLMENT ENDS (most states)
Time: D H M S
Today was a big day for enrollment updates. Not only did the Week Two Big One come out (HealthCare.Gov, which covers 38 states in one shot), but there were also official state-level updates from Rhode Island, Minnesota and California (although the CA update is partial, only covering new enrollees, not renewals of currently-enrolled individuals). In addition, there's also the recent updates from Maryland and Colorado.
Plug 'em all in ad you have the following: 1.17 million QHP selections confirmed nationally from 43 states out of around 1.76 million estimated nationally to date.
As I noted earlier today, I do expect things to drop off slightly for the current (third) week, to perhaps around 500,000 even via HC.gov. If so, that would bring the HC.gov total up to around 1.58 million by Saturday, or around 2.05 million nationally.
UPDATE: I'm also starting to track the weekly 2016 vs. 2015 HC.gov totals, since they're readily available for comparison:
- WEEK 1: 2015: 462,000 / 2016: 543,000 (17.5% higher)
- WEEK 2: 2015: 303,000 (Thanksgiving week) / 2016: 535,000 (76.6% higher)
For Week 3, last year over 618,000 people selected QHPs via HC.gov, but I'm only expecting around 500,000 this year. My reasoning is that the enrollment period started 2 weeks earlier this year, so I don't expect the things to start ramping up substantially until after Thanksgiving again. As always, I'll be happy if I've underestimated things...