2018 Rate Hikes: Hawaii
2019 OPEN ENROLLMENT ENDS (most states)
Time: D H M S
Hawaii only has two carriers on the individual market (and in fact doesn't even have much of an individual market due to a state law mandating that nearly every business provide coverage anyway). HMSA's filing letter is very specific about calling out both the CSR and mandate enforcement sabotage factors as being part of their request. Kaiser doesn't really mention either issue at all, and the only CSR reference in the filing seemed to assume it would be paid, so I have one in each category. Kaiser Family Foundation assumes a 21% Silver CSR rate hike, and 71% of Hawaii's exchange enrollees are on Silver plans, so that amounts to roughly a 15% overall CSR factor.
Here's what it looks like...15.2% w/partial sabotage, 30.2% with full sabotage: