Time: D H M S


WARNING: As far as I can figure, Texas's ACA-compliant individual market totals somewhere around 1.4 million people (Mark Farrah Associates estimated the entire individual market at 1.6 million a little over a year ago; of that I estimate roughly 180,000 were enrolled in grandfathered or transitional plans). The breakout as of today should be roughly 1.1 million on-exchange enrollees and perhaps 300,000 off-exchange.

Unfortunately, while the SERFF database shows 2019 listings for most of the 11 carriers which offer ACA policies in Texas this year, it only actually has the filings posted for 3 of them so far: CHRISTUS, Sendero and FirstCare Health Plans (aka SHA, LLC). Even then, those three carriers hold a pretty small share of the market, totalling just 65,000 enrollees. That means I only have actual 2019 rate data for about 5% of the ACA market available so far.

With this in mind, I need to strongly caution people about reading too much into the 21.6% average rate hike being requested by these three carriers, or even the 13.5% average increase they'd be asking for without the ACA's individual mandate being repealed or Trump's expansion of #ShortAssPlans. These averages could easily be swamped and skewed significantly (higher or lower) when one or more of the Big Kahunas in Texas is plugged in. For instance, last year BCBSTX had around 390,000 enrollees...that's 6 times as many as CHRISTUS, Sendero and FirstCare combined. If BCBS comes in at, say, a 10% rate hike, that would single-handedly lower the weighted average from 21.6% to around 11.7%, and so on.

This is about as simple as I could make it. It's an absolutely absurd argument, but there it is: