Medicaid

I just posted a colorful graph which tracked ACA Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollment over eleven years of Open Enrollment Periods.

Below I've done the same thing for ACA Medicaid Expansion. The data comes from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quarterly Medicaid Budget & Expenditure System reports.

*Unfortunately the MBES reports only run through June 2023, so it's missing 6 months of updates (which have likely shown a small drop in ACA Expansion Medicaid enrollees due to the ongoing Unwinding process). It therefore actually only includes 10 1/2 yrs of enrollment data.

Also keep in mind that if the remaining 10 states had expanded Medicaid under the ACA by now, the grand total would have been several million higher.

No further analysis or comment here; I just think this is a pretty cool graphic...and keep in mind that most of the ~24.5 million people represented here would have been utterly screwed from early 2020 - early 2023 without the Affordable Care Act being in place when the pandemic hit. Click the image for a higher-resolution version; the states are listed on the right-hand side, though they might be difficult to make out (also note that Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands also have a number of ACA expansion enrollees shown):

Normally, states will review (or "redetermine") whether people enrolled in Medicaid or the CHIP program are still eligible to be covered by it on a monthly (or in some cases, quarterly, I believe) basis.

However, the federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), passed by Congress at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, included a provision requiring state Medicaid programs to keep people enrolled through the end of the Public Health Emergency (PHE). In return, states received higher federal funding to the tune of billions of dollars.

As a result, there are tens of millions of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees who didn't have their eligibility status redetermined for as long as three years.

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

  • In October 2023, 87,289,666 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP, a decrease of 1,160,543 individuals (1.3%) from September 2023.
    • 80,227,593 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid in October 2023, a decrease of 1,210,160 individuals (1.5%) from September 2023.
    • 7,062,073 individuals were enrolled in CHIP in October 2023, an increase of 49,617 individuals (0.7%) from September 2023.
  • As of October 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP has decreased by 6,561,074 individuals (7.0%) since March 2023, the final month of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) and amended by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023.
    • Medicaid enrollment has decreased by 6,489,844 individuals (7.5%).
    • CHIP enrollment has decreased by 71,230 individuals (1.0%).
  • Between February 2020 and March 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP increased by 22,975,671 individuals (32.4%) to 93,850,740.
    • Medicaid enrollment increased by 22,637,644 individuals (35.3%).
    • CHIP enrollment increased by 338,027 individuals (5.0%).

Mississippi is one of the ten states where ACA Medicaid expansion still hasn't gone through a full decade after it could have.

A few years ago, Medicaid expansion in Mississippi looked like it might actually happen: While the states GOP Governor and Republican supermajority-controlled state legislature opposed it, in May 2021 there was a strong grassroots effort to put a statewide initiative on the ballot to push it through regardless, exactly how it happened in other deep red states like Utah, Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota.

Unfortunately, just a few weeks later, the Mississippi Supreme Court crushed that effort:

On the one hand the state of Texas has enacted a policy of literally allowing women with life-threatening pregnancies to die in hospital lobbies rather than save their lives by allowing an emergency abortion.

On the other hand, well, at least if women manage to survive childbirth, they & their newborn baby will have Medicaid coverage for a full year in the future. Via the Austin American-Statesman:

Texas mothers are one step closer to getting health coverage for 12 months following pregnancy.

This week, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services approved Texas' plan to provide 12 months of postpartum health care coverage through Medicaid or Children's Health Insurance Program instead of the current 60 days. Those programs are for people who qualify based on income. The extended coverage will begin March 1.

Back in September, Inside Health Policy reporter Dorothy Mills-Gregg checked in on "Georgia Pathways," the Peach State's new program which partially expands Medicaid to residents earning up to 100% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), but with a rather significant string attached: Work reporting requirements:

As noted by Madeline Guth of the Kaiser Family Foundation last year:

...in spite of nearly every state which tried to (or succeeded in) implement Medicaid work requirements having their programs shut down by the courts, one state's work/reporting managed to survive: Georgia. As explained in the Kaiser article:

It was just 53 days ago that North Carolina became the 40th state (plus DC & the U.S. territories) to fully expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. At the time, around 600,000 lower-income North Carolinians were estimated to be eligible for the public healthcare program.

So where do things stand now? Well, the NC government has posted a handy Medicaid enrollment dashboard which is tracking the data as once a month; the most recent update was on January 12th:

NC Medicaid Expansion Enrollment as of January 12th, 2024: 314,101

The dashboard has some nifty interactive tools letting. you filter enrollees out by plan, age bracket, gender, ethnicity, urban/rural status and county, along with enrollment trends.

Normally, states will review (or "redetermine") whether people enrolled in Medicaid or the CHIP program are still eligible to be covered by it on a monthly (or in some cases, quarterly, I believe) basis.

However, the federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), passed by Congress at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, included a provision requiring state Medicaid programs to keep people enrolled through the end of the Public Health Emergency (PHE). In return, states received higher federal funding to the tune of billions of dollars.

As a result, there are tens of millions of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees who didn't have their eligibility status redetermined for as long as three years.

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

  • In September 2023, 88,414,773 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
    • 81,408,432 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid in September 2023, a decrease of 1,621,776 individuals (2.0%) from August 2023.
    • 7,006,341 individuals were enrolled in CHIP in September 2023, an increase of 28,391 individuals (0.4%) from August 2023.
  • As of September 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP has decreased by 5,435,967 individuals since March 2023, the final month of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) and amended by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023.
    • Medicaid enrollment has decreased by 5,309,005 individuals (6.1%).
    • CHIP enrollment has decreased by 126,962 individuals (1.8%).
  • Between February 2020 and March 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP increased by 22,975,671 individuals (32.4%) to 93,850,740.
    • Medicaid enrollment increased by 22,637,644 individuals (35.3%).
    • CHIP enrollment increased by 338,027 individuals (5.0%).

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

Biden-Harris Administration Releases New Medicaid and CHIP Renewal Data Showing the Role State Policy Choices Play in Keeping Kids Covered

  • Sec. Becerra Calls on Nine States with the Highest Child Disenrollments to Immediately Take Up Proven Federal Flexibilities to Protect Children and Families; Biden-Harris Administration Extends Federal Flexibilities to States Until End of 2024

Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released new data on state Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment changes among children and youth since full eligibility renewals for these programs restarted earlier this year. The data released today make it clear that state policy choices have real consequences for children and families during Medicaid and CHIP renewals. States that take up proven flexibilities and strategies from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) are better able to protect kids’ coverage – especially when the state has also expanded Medicaid.

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