Minnesota

Hmm...well, things are starting to pick up heading into the final weekend of Open Enrollment in Minnesota...

Latest Enrollment Numbers

February 13, 2015

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 66,538
MinnesotaCare 24,457
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 49,238
TOTAL 140,233

The last MNsure update was 1/25, when they had 44,331 QHP selections. Since then, they've added just 1,642 more...or about 150/day. In order to reach their lowered target of 67K by 2/15, they'll need to add 2,100/day for 10 days straight. I just don't see them pulling that off.

Still, if they can reach, say, half of that, they'll add another 11K, which would bring their total up to perhaps 57,000, which isn't unreasonable.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's Medicaid/MinnesotaCare tally is up to 78,863 combined.

February 6, 2015

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 57,593
MinnesotaCare 21,270
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 45,973
TOTAL 124,836

 

This update from MNsure comes not from their normal Enrollment Update page (which still only runs through 1/23), but from their monthly board meeting report from 1/28:

Huh. The actual QHP numbers are fine--that is, Minnesota is still lagging behind where they should be, but they've added 201 over the past couple of days, which is fine given that we're in the slowest part of the enrollment period.

However...what's going on in the lower-left? "Advanced Premium Tax Credits" is the government-ese name for "Tax Subsidies'. In most states they're averaging somewhere between 80-90%...yet in Minnesota, it's less than 50%? What's up with that?

Latest Enrollment Numbers

January 23, 2015*

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 44,308
MinnesotaCare 17,506
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 44,130
TOTAL 105,944

* (actually as of 1/22)

OK, let's see here...that's exactly 400 more QHP enrollees since 1/19, or 133/day, although they've averaged 194/day since New Year's Eve.

At that rate (with no mid-February bump), they'll add another 4,600 by 2/15, or 49K, well short of their target of 67K. However, it's more likely to be more like double or even triple that when you include the final surge, for a total of perhaps 58,000 or so. Reaching their internal target may still be feasible; reaching mine (75K) seems very unlikely at this point, but anything's possible.

I was rather surprised to see another update from MNsure today, since they've generally been issuing weekly updates on Fridays this year, but they decided to issue a special press release to trumpet attaining the 100,000 enrollment mark:

MNsure tops 100,000 Total Enrollments 
Less than four weeks remain before February 15 open enrollment deadline

ST. PAUL, Minn.—Today, MNsure announced more than 100,000 Minnesotans have enrolled in comprehensive, affordable health insurance coverage since November 15, the start of the 2015 open enrollment period.

“We are encouraged by this news, as well as the fact that so many Minnesotans are obtaining the health insurance coverage they need through MNsure,” said CEO Scott Leitz. “As we enter the final weeks of this open enrollment period, we’re stepping on the gas to make sure all Minnesotans know about the benefits of MNsure.”

Last week, with autorenewals added into the mix, MNsure was sitting at 41,704 QHPs as of January 5th. They just posted another update running through last night (the date of the numbers is actually as of the night before, as made clear from the corresponding press releases):

Latest Enrollment Numbers: January 16, 2015

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 38,405
MinnesotaCare 16,056
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 43,461

TOTAL 97,922

Minnesota had just posted year-end updates 2 days ago but I'm glad to see a new one which brings the numbers up through last night:

Latest Enrollment Numbers

January 6, 2015

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 29,936
MinnesotaCare 12,225
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 41,704

TOTAL 83,865

The major change here isn't so much new QHPs (just 1,844 of the increase) as the autorenewals (or "passive renewals" as MNsure calls them) which made up 8,701 of the total:

Updated @MNsure enrollments: 83,865 total. 41,704 in QHP (8,701 of which are passive renewal), 12,225 in MinnesotaCare and 29,936 in MA

As I noted last week, Minnesota had around 41,000 people enrolled in 2014 exchange QHPs as of October, and due to PreferredOne dropping off the exchange (with around 60% of the market), along with a state law which requires insurance companies to continue providing the same policy as long as a current enrollee wants to keep it (and keeps paying premiums), that meant that MN's renewal/re-enrollment situation was especially unusual compared to most states.

They bumped their January coverage deadline out to 12/31; today they posted their Year End results:

Latest Enrollment Numbers

December 31, 2014

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 26,540
MinnesotaCare 11,152
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 31,159
TOTAL 68,851

Hmmm...OK, I admit I'm starting to get a bit concerned about Minnesota. True, they bumped out their January deadline enrollment date until tomorrow (New Year's Eve), so there's still 5 day's worth of data to go including what I assume will be some sort of surge today and tomorrow, but I was expecting them to be doing a bit better at this point. They had just over 41,000 2014 enrollees as of mid-October. Nationally over 90% of 2014 enrollees should be renewed either manually or automatically, but MN has a special situation given that the largest insurance company on MNsure dropped out, leaving over 60% of the total to find something else or be moved off of the exchange completely.

(sigh) This is gonna be a lonnnng month for me...

MNsure Extends Enrollment Deadline for January 1 Coverage to December 31

MNsure sent this bulletin at 12/19/2014 11:34 AM CST

December 19, 2014

MNSURE: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MNsure Extends Enrollment Deadline for January 1 Coverage to December 31
Decision follows transfer of enrollment information to insurance carriers and aligns enrollment deadlines for January 1 coverage

ST. PAUL, Minn.—In an effort to provide more time for Minnesotans who qualify for financial help available only through MNsure, the organization today announced it would extend the enrollment deadline to December 31 for January 1 coverage.

Minnesotans must now enroll in coverage through MNsure by noon on Wednesday, December 31, to have their coverage effective on January 1, 2015. The change comes at a time of high interest in MNsure and as many health insurance companies recently extended their own enrollment deadlines for January 1 coverage.

DON'T DELAY, ACT NOW!!

As of Thursday the 12th, MNsure had enrolled about 14.4K people for private 2015 policies. Thanks to the December Surge Weekend, this has jumped up by more than 9,300 more:

Latest Enrollment Numbers

December 17, 2014

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 17,888
MinnesotaCare 7,681
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 23,797
TOTAL 49,366

Hmmm...MNsure is currently enrolling people at 3x the rate they did all of last year. Assuming that this doesn't include automatic renewals, that's pretty good. They bumped their enrollment deadline for January coverage out until Friday afternoon (4:30pm, for some reason), which is even better.

UPDATE: According to this Modern Healthcare article, only about 42% of MN's enrollments to date are renewals. In one sense, this is good since it suggests that they still have a good 31K potential renewals to work with.

As you can see from the graphic I posted yesterday (and had to revise several times throughout the day), the official enrollment deadline for private policies starting on January 1st, 2015 has now passed for all 37 states operating via HealthCare.Gov, as well as residents of DC, Hawaii and Kentucky. It's certainly possible that any or all of these will announce some sort of "special circumstances" allowance for those who didn't make the midnight cut-off (10pm in Alaska), but I'm assuming those would be done strictly on a case-by-case basis.

OK, so what about the remaining 11 states?

Well, 4 of them (MD, MA, RI & WA) had later deadlines for January coverage all along: Maryland on 12/18 (Thursday) and the other 3 on 12/23 (next Tuesday).

New York and Idaho bumped their deadlines out from yesterday until 12/20 (Saturday), although Idaho had previously claimed that their deadline was 12/23, but are now claiming that it was originally 12/15. I still don't understand what happened there, but so be it: 12/20 it is for ID.

Here's the latest from MNsure...

December 12, 2014

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 13,697
MinnesotaCare 5,318
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 14,415
TOTAL 33,430

Overall, 14,415 QHPs in 28 days is quite good: 514 per day on average, or about 2.1x the average daily rate for the 2014 open enrollment period.

However, when you look at the trend lines from week to week, it's even more impressive:

  • 11/15 - 11/21 (7 days): 2,551 = 364/day
  • 11/22 - 11/26 (5 days): 1,796 = 359/day (only 5 days included due to Thanksgiving)
  • 11/27 - 12/05 (9 days): 3,482 = 386/day (includes 2 extra days from prior week)
  • 12/06 - 12/12 (7 days): 6,586 = 941/day

In addition, they've added, 19,015 Medicaid/MinnesotaCare enrollments.

This is the first Minnesota update I have which comes from a tweet instead of their official update page, but it's very specific:

Here's your weekly @MNsure enrollment update. 20,909 total enrollments. 7,829 in QHPs, 3,340 in MinnesotaCare and 9,740 in MA.

— MNsure (@MNsure) December 5, 2014

Even I was surprised when I read that Minnesota's ACA exchange, MNsure, was projecting to more than double their 2015 enrollment figure. Yes, other states like Massachusetts are expected to increase their numbers severalfold, but it always seemed like a stretch for Minnesota, especially with their largest 2014 participant, PreferredOne, dropping out this year. They hit around 50K last year and were originally projecting to hit over 100K this time around.

Sure enough, they've decided to walk that number back a bit, down to 67K...which would be an increase of only 38% over the

48,495 they enrolled during the first open enrollment period:

MNsure on Wednesday said it was cutting by about one-third the number of people it expects will enroll in private health plans through the exchange for 2015.

That means MNsure will also see a drop in revenue, although officials say they expect to end the fiscal year next June with no red ink.

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