I debated whether or not to upload another update now instead of waiting for DC & NY to wrap things up, but figured what the hell.
I still expect the final national QHP selection tally to increase by around 35,000 more when the dust settles, including perhaps 1,000 more from DC, 5K - 10K more from New York and around 28,000 from Vermont (which hasn't reported anything so far this Open Enrollment Period). If so, the official total should end up around 11.47 million nationally, with the 12 State-Based exchanges coming in around 1.6% higher than last year (an all-time high for them collectively) vs. the 39 states on the federal exchange, which dropped another 3.8% this year. Nationally, the official total should end up around 280,000 enrollees short of last year.
Last night, in response to CMS Administrator Seema Verma taking shots at both Covered California (for blaming their drop in new enrollment on the federal mandate being repealed) and New Jersey (for seeing a 7.1% exchange enrollment drop in spite of reinstating the mandate), I wrote a long analysis which noted that:
Verma may have a valid point, but...
There's not nearly enough data available to know one way or the other (especially the missing off-exchange data for this year), and...
Even if she turns out to be correct about NJ's total enrollment drop, NJ reinstating the mandate still resulted in a substantial premium drop for well over 100,000 residents.
Today, I was able to fill in some of that missing data...although some of it is still frustratingly absent.
I say nearly all because there are still three numbers missing:
Vermont has yet to release any 2019 enrollment data. This is the 3rd year in a row that they've been radio silent. Assuming they're close to last year (28,763 QHP selections), they should add around 28,000 to the national total.
New York still has 2 days left for people to #GetCovered. I'm going to assume they'll tack on perhaps 5,000 more people today and tomorrow.
The District of Columbia hasn't posted any updates since December 11th, which means not only do they still have 2 days for people to sign up, they're actually missing a whopping 51 days worth of enrollment data. Again, assuming they wrap up close to last year, that should mean another 1,400 or so from DC.
Between the three, I'd expect another ~34,000 QHP selections to be tacked onto the totals below.
Covered California Plan Selections Remain Steady at 1.5 Million, but a Significant Drop in New Consumers Signals Need to Restore Penalty
Covered California finishes open enrollment with 1.5 million plan selections, which is virtually identical to 2018’s total, despite federal changes.
A key reason for the steady enrollment is that more people entered the renewal process for 2019 coverage after a strong enrollment period for 2018.
The federal removal of the individual mandate penalty appears to have had a substantial impact, leading to a decrease of 23.7 percent in new enrollment.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California announced that more than 1.5 million consumers selected a health plan for 2019 coverage during the most recent open-enrollment period, a figure in line with last year’s total. There was a 7.5 percent increase in the number of existing consumers renewing their coverage and a 23.7 percent drop in the number of new consumers signing up for 2019.
Last April, Maryland was one of several states which took action to counteract portions of the Trump Administration's attempts to sabotage the Affordable Care Act. In particular, Maryland (which has a Democratically-controlled state legislature but a moderate (by today's standards) Republican Governor) passed and signed into two important bills:
The combined effect of these changes was dramatic: Maryland's individual market insurance carriers, which had been planning on jacking up their average premiums by a whopping 30%, instead ended up lowering their 2019 premiums by over 13%. This is a net swing of around $3,200 per enrollee for the year (around $266 per month). In other words, instead of seeing unsubsidized 2019 premiums go up by $2,200 apiece, they dropped around $1,000.
This is a very quick post as I’m in the middle of the Families USA healthcare conference, but it’s a significant one: The Massachusetts Health Connector, which wrapped up their 2019 ACA Open Enrollment Period last night, just reported the following:
Here is an update as of today, with Open Enrollment having ended last night.
Note: These numbers below should be considered something of a high-water mark. There will be fluctuations as plan-selecteds lose their window, members terminate, but also some applicants end up enrolling in March coverage.
Total enrollments (Including all January, February and March enrollments to date): 292,006
Plan selected/unenrolled: 8,079
2019enrollmentasdefinedbyCMS: 300,085
Our new enrollment (people who did not have Health Connector coverage as of Nov. 1) is 60,361. This is a 23 percent increase from last year’s 49,034 at the same point in time.
Our retention rate is currently 89.7 percent, up about 2.6 percent from last year.
DC Health Link Pulling Out All the Stops for African-American “Week of Action”
Friday, January 18, 2019
Marching in MLK, Jr. Day Parade, barber shop outreach, and visiting churches highlight opportunities to boost African-American health insurance enrollment
WHAT/WHO:
With less than two weeks left to the January 31 deadline to sign up for 2019 coverage, DC Health Link is ramping up outreach efforts to the African-American community, where the uninsured rate remains high. DC Health Link, in partnership with various community organizations, is encouraging uninsured African-Americans to enroll in quality, affordable health insurance during DC Health Link’s “African-American Week of Action.”
Press Release: NY State of Health Hosts Online Informational Webinars in Spanish and Mandarin Tomorrow
Enrollment Remains Strong During Final Weeks of Open Enrollment
Enroll Today! 2019 Open Enrollment Ends January 31, 2019
Customer Service Center Hours Extended before Deadline
ALBANY, N.Y. (January 22, 2019) - NY State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today reminded New Yorkers that now is the time to enroll in a Qualified Health Plan (QHP) for 2019 coverage. NY State of Health will hold webinars in Spanish and Mandarin tomorrow night, January 23, 2019. Open Enrollment for 2019 ends January 31. Consumers across the state have a choice of many quality health plans, and financial assistance is available to most individuals who buy coverage through NY State of Health.
