Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 3,503,387 as of 12/18/14
Estimated 2015 QHPs (Cumulative):
11/21:
610K (462K HCgov) • 11/28: 1.02M (765K HCgov) • 12/05: 1.80M (1.35M HCgov)
12/12: 3.26M (2.46M HCgov) • 12/15: 4.70M (3.52M HCgov)
12/19: 7.78M (5.83M HCgov) - Assumes Autorenewals Included

state-level projections


FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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January Enrollment Deadline Status

Residents of ALL state (+DC) can still enroll for policies starting on February 1st until 1/15/15.

When I made my original projection of 12.0 million QHP selections by 2/15/15, I assumed that roughly 6.1 million of the 6.7 million current 2014 enrollees would re-up via one of three methods:

  • Actively logging into their existing account and renewing their current policy/switching to a different one
  • Actively creating a new account (in states like MA, MD, OR & NV) and enrolling the same/a different policy for 2015
  • Taking no action whatsoever and being automatically re-enrolled in their current account (or one nearly identical if the current one is no longer available).

In other words, I was operating on the assumption that roughly 6.1 million (91%) of current enrollees would stay on board one way or another, plus another 5.9 million new folks signing up for the first time.

All of these stories deserve full write-ups, but I just don't have time right now...

Employer coverage stays steady in 2014

One persistent Obamacare fear, for years now, has been that the new law would decimate the employer-sponsored insurance system. Why would companies waste money on buying coverage for their workers, the argument goes, when they could hand these people off to Obamacare's new exchanges?

And some high profile companies like Walmart went through and did this, leading to much speculation about whether Obamacare would kill employer-sponsored coverage.

New research from the Urban Institute suggests that, at least in year one, companies like Walmart were the exception rather than the norm: employer-sponsored coverage held steady through the Affordable Care Act's launch.

Huh. OK, this one is unexpected, mainly because they waited until 4 days after the original 12/15 deadline to make the announcement:

The Hawaii Health Connector has extended the deadline for residents to enroll in health insurance that takes effect on Jan. 1.

The extension will be until noon on Dec. 31. The original deadline was this past Monday.

The state's health insurance exchange created by the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, signed up 3,500 residents in the first month of open enrollment , which started on Nov. 15. To enroll, call 1-877-628-5076 or go to www.hawaiihealthconnector.com.

So, that makes 3 states now which have bumped their deadline for January 1st coverage out until 12/31: Hawaii, Vermont and Minnesota.

A week ago, I reported an update regarding the "Florida Health Choices" website, spearheaded by Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio, which is a taxpayer-funded healthcare exchange to sell private insurance policies to Florida residents:

TALLAHASSEE — Last year, legislators allocated $900,000 to help Floridians find affordable health care through a new state-backed website.

At the same time, they refused to expand Medicaid or work with the federal government to offer subsidized insurance plans.

You know...Obamacare, without the "Obama" part.

It also doesn't offer any tax credits to make healthcare policies, you know, affordable.

Then again, that's kind of a moot point, since it doesn't actually even offer healthcare policies anyway--just "discount cards" for dental visits, prescriptions and prescription eyeglasses.

So...you know, it's basically a coupon store.

Oh, yeah...and even some of those coupons are kind of a scam:

A few days ago, I reported that Oregon had only enrolled 40,581 people in private 2015 policies via Healthcare.Gov as of December 14th. I further speculated that even if you include the big Deadline Spike on the 15th, the grand total for OR was likely around 48,000 total in time for January coverage...and of those, the odds are that around 8K of them are new enrollees, leaving around 40K manual renewals from this year.

At my last count, there were around 77K people still enrolled in 2014 plans as of late October, so that leaves potentially 37K people who will miss the boat for January coverage (at least with tax credits...they can still enroll off-exchange without credits, and almost 27K have done so in the state so far).

Many of those 37K may have dropped off of the exchange voluntarily, due to switching to employer-sponsored coverage, aging into Medicare and so on, while others who don't qualify for tax credits anyway may have gone off-exchange instead this year.

However, politically/image-wise, there are still thousands of people who qualify for tax credits who probably missed the deadline.

Yesterday on HealthCare.Gov's Facebook page they posted a seemingly innocuous but rather curiously worded post/promo:

I'm not sure what to make of this. "Over a million people enrolled" it says. The embedded image specifically refers to 2015 coverage (and of course that's what they're pushing hard right now). Yet the most recent HHS Dept. weekly "snapshot" report has the number of plan selections as 2,446,562.

So, what does "over a million" refer to? Well, it could be a couple of things. It's most likely referring to the 48% of those who are new enrollees (around 1.17 million)...but if that was the case, it would make more sense to me to include the confirmed renewals for 2015 as well and say "more than 2.4 million enrolled." 

A reader brought this article over at The Hill to my attention this morning:

At least 1.1 million people have signed up for healthcare through ObamaCare outside of the federal marketplace, according to a review of state data by The Hill.

That tally is on top of the 2.5 million people who signed up for coverage in the 37 states using the federal exchange, putting ObamaCare on track to outpace its goal for 2015.

I have a confirmed total of just over 3.5 million private policy enrollments via the various exchanges (federal + state) to date, so when I read the first sentences, it made me think "Ah ha! They've been reading ACASignups.net and also managed to find at least another 100K policy enrollments that I've missed! I was intrigued. But then...

Out of the 13 states that don’t use the federal exchange, 11 have reported data since Dec. 17 — a total of 1,142,124 sign-ups. Rhode Island and Idaho have not yet reported numbers.

A quick reminder: If you live in Idaho or New York, today is the deadline to enroll in a private healthcare policy if you want coverage starting on January 1st, 2015.

Here's the upcoming deadlines for January coverage for other states:

Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Washington State: Tuesday, December 23rd

Minnesota & Vermont: Wednesday, December 31st

If you live in any other state, you have until January 15th to enroll for coverage starting on February 1st.

Open enrollment weekly updates

The Insurance Division will collect enrollment information from carriers each week throughout 2015 open enrollment. Updated numbers will be posted each week on this web page.

Members enrolled,

  • Nov. 15-Dec. 14
  • On Healthcare.gov 40,581
  • Outside of Healthcare.gov 26,799
  • Total 67,380​

About the data: Enrolled means a person has selected a plan. Consumers must pay the first month's premium for their coverage to become effective. These numbers do not identify whether the first month's premium has been paid. These numbers do not include Oregonians enrolled in the Oregon Health Plan (Medicaid).

This updated from Oregon doesn't increase the total on the spreadsheet or graph, because it's already included in the HC.gov reports, but it's important for other reasons, including:

OK, it looks like my theory about MA's "QHPs as % of Determinations" theory was wrong; I assumed that it would have started increasing from 50% over the past week, intstead it dropped to about 48% (or held steady at 52% if you include the "plans in cart" which neither I nor the MA exchange is doing anyway).

Therefore, the bad news is that the official total is around 8,300 fewer than I thought: 53,490 thorugh yesterday. The good news is that this is still an excellent number, and there's still tens of thousands of people who've started the process who have until next Tuesday to wrap it up.

In addition, remember my snark from 11/16 about "ONLY 3.5% HAVE PAID!!"? Well, guess what: That percentage is up to 34%, and they still have 5 days to pay (I presume they're dealing with a flood of payments at the moment).

The Medicaid tally holds at 98,530 since it doesn't include yesterday.

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