Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 11,693,550 as of 2/27/15
Estimated: 11.74M (8.95M via HCgov) as of 2/28/15

state-level targets (revised) 
Estimated 2015 ACA Policy Enrollment: 32.4M
(10.3M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M OFF-Exchange QHPs, 200K SHOP, 13.9M Medicaid/CHIP)

FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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UPDATE: I've confirmed that Maryland and Massachusetts do both plan on continuing to issue at least monthly reports during the off season (I'd prefer weekly but I'll take what I can get).

As of today (February 27th), the 2015 Open Enrollment Period has ended in 47 states (KY, MD, NY & WA states are still allowing "In Line by Midnight" extensions through tomorrow night or all the way out until April, and CO, CT, DC & HI have taken a sort of "case by case basis" approach with no specific hard deadline).

Last Sunday I decided to round up all of the different "overtime period" policies onto a single page, which has been linked to as a resource by a bunch of media outlets. Today I'm doing the same thing for the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period, which has already been announced for 40 41 45 states as of 2/26:

OK, so here's a fun little King v. Burwell exercise:

  • First, look at the official Democratic/Republican lean of all 37 states operating via Healthcare.Gov. For this, I used Gallup's 2013 Political Composition survey.
    • Caveat: This may have changed significantly in the past year or so, and just because someone identifies with one party or the other (or neither) doesn't tell us their actual voting record or frequency)
  • Then, let's sort the states by their red/blue lean, making some adjustments for states which don't seem to match up in practice with their "on paper" party lean (for instance, Viriginia has been trending blue recently, while Ohio, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Florida, which officially have more self-identified Democrats than Republicans, sure as hell seem to be on the red side in recent years (the same could be said of Michigan, but there's too strong a Dem advantage there to ignore).

Me, July 22nd, 2014:

As for other states like Florida, Texas and Louisiana, consider the following attack ad, modelled on Mark Totten's press release above:

"Tens of thousands of Louisianans will have to pay hundreds of dollars in higher taxes...all because Bobby Jindal is too petty to shell out $10 bucks for a domain name!!"

The Republicans in two dozen states thought they were playing smart politics (with people's lives, but screw them, right?) when they denied Medicaid expansion, but this has since blown up in their faces, and has now become a potent issue for Democrats in several GOP-held states. I think I know why they thought this...and why it didn't work out the way they figured.

As far as I can tell, the Republican mindset was this: Poor people don't vote. Therefore, screwing over poor people = brownie points from the GOP base without any potential downside.

And in a more lighthearted moment...

That is all.

This isn't an exact apples-to-apples comparison, since the Massachusetts number includes the "overtime" extension period while the other 5 states only run through 2/15/15, but I thought it would be useful to see how the 6 exchanges which had widespread technical issues last year fared this time around. Obviously  other states like Washington and California had some snafus, but these are the ones which were seriously hosed last year to the point of requiring massive overhauls or which were completely scrapped in favor of a new platform (I'm not including itself here since everyone already knows what massive technical improvements they've made).

The chart below refers specifically to QHP selections only (whether paid or not), and compares the 2015 open enrollment period (11/15/14 - 2/15/15...or 2/26 in the case of MA) against the 2014 open enrollment period (10/1/13 - 4/19/14). I've also included some notes for context.

As I noted earlier, I've been expecting final #OE2 numbers from at least two states, Massachusetts & Minnesota. MA has just come through with an extremely detailed report.

In addition, they've given me a partial answer to my earlier question: Yes, they do plan on releasing off-season enrollment data at least monthly (via their board meetings), and possibly weekly (I'm guessing daily would be too much to ask during the off-season). So, I can count on off-season data from at least 1 state...49+DC to go...

They also said that they don't know about a Tax Season Special Enrollment Period yet, and did not have any SHOP data or Medicaid expansion-vs-woodworker data yet.

Finally, one interesting MA-specific quirk: "ConnectorCare" enrollees...which are QHP enrollees but are heavily subsidized by the state as well (I think this is sort of like Arkansas' Medicaid "private option"?)...can be enrolled in year-round. This could be significant during the off-season, espeically since this makes up 64% of the total QHP number to date.

With that, in the end, Massachusetts final official numbers are:

I'm expecting final official #OE2 enrollment reports from Massachusetts and Minnesota later today, but otherwise have to catch up on a bunch of my actual day job work. Here's three quick things to note:

MARYLAND: The Maryland Health Connection has released a big slideshow PDF with a mountain of demographic info. The only gripe I have is that it only runs through 2/15, so doesn't include the extra folks who signed up during the #ACAOvertime period. Data nerds, rejoice!!

I keep reading stories like this one at the Washington Examiner lately (about the GOP hand-wringing over the potential backlash if they "win" the King v. Burwell case at the Supreme Court):

GOP scrambles to keep Obamacare subsidies flowing in case of Supreme Court victory

There's an easy solution. See below.

...a Senate GOP working group has been meeting for months to figure out what to do should the challenge to Obamacare succeed.

There's an easy solution. See below.

...Republicans are working on their own plan..."We're not going to help the law, but we're going to help the people, so they are not left in the lurch."

There's an easy solution. See below.

What that means is Republicans are going to find a way to continue paying subsidies to the estimated 7.5 million Americans who receive taxpayer-funded help to pay their insurance premiums through the federal Obamacare exchange.

Mazel Tov to HealthSourceRI for being the first of the state-based exchanges to release their full 2015 Open Enrollment Period (with #ACAOvertime included) results. released their collective total yesterday, but haven't broken it out by state yet; Kentucky released data through 2/19 but their extension period isn't over until Saturday; and I have a rough estimate for Massachusetts, but they won't release their official tally until tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here's Rhode Island's final count:

PROVIDENCE – HealthSource RI (HSRI) has released enrollment data, certain demographic data and certain volume metrics through Monday, February 23, 2015, for Open Enrollment and the Special Enrollment Period (due to previous weather closings at the contact center and walk-in locations).