Ever since the MAGA Murder Bill (officially H.R. 1, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") was passed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate & House and signed into law by Donald Trump a few days ago, I've seen a growing conventional wisdom taking hold on social media: People keep claiming that either all, "nearly all"or at least "most of" the budget cuts & other gutting of various programs and departments won't actually kick in until after the November 2026 midterms.
Now, don't get me wrong--most of those making these claims are well-intentioned; they're saying this cynically, to underscore how disingenuous Congressional Republicans are by back-loading the pain until the midterms are safely in their rearview mirrors. And, to be fair, much of the damage won't being until well after next November.
Over at The New Republic, Greg Sargent has taken this thinking one step further, noting that by delaying so much of the ugliness of the new law until 2027 or beyond...
Political battles are usually won based on appealing to emotion, not to facts, policy or logic.
However, you should still have those facts at your disposal for two reasons: First, they still help you craft appeals to emotion. Second, they also help you craft the actual policy. Besides, I'm a data guy; my primary job is to help put facts & policy into easily-understandable context.
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
In early 2021, Congressional Democrats & President Biden passed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier. They then extended the subsidy upgrade out by another 3 years via the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the upgrade eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.
Ambetter Health of LA:
The proposed rate change of 16.4% applies to approximately 97,401 individuals. Ambetter Health of Louisiana’s projected administrative expenses for 2026 are $91.51 PMPM. Administrative expense does not include $17.45 for taxes and fees. The historical administrative expenses for 2025 were $79.64 PMPM, which excludes taxes and fees. The projected loss ratio is 81.4% which satisfies the federal minimum loss ratio requirement of 80.0%.
CHRISTUS Health Plan:
(as far as I can tell, CHRISTUS is dropping out of the Louisiana individual market...they aren't listed on the federal Rate Review database website, nor do they show up in the LA SERFF filings or on the LA Insurance Dept. website.)
Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.
Anthem Health Plans of KY:
This filing includes an average rate change of 24.0%, excluding the impact of aging, effective January 1, 2026. At the individual plan level, rate increases range from 11.1% to 28.9% for renewing plans. A subscriber’s actual rate could be higher or lower depending on the geographic location, age characteristics, dependent coverage, and other factors.
Unfortunately, Anthem doesn't provide their actual 2025 individual market enrollment; I've had to estimate this based on marketwide estimated enrollment; see below.
Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.
Aetna Life Insurance Co:
(Aetna/CVS is dropping out of the individual market in all states; I estimate they have around 35,000 enrollees in Kansas who will have to find a different carrier for 2026)
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City:
Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (BCBSKC) is requesting an average rate change of -6.1% for 2025 individual rates as compared to 2023 individual rates and calculated by the URRT. The changes vary by plan, with a minimum rate change of -10.8% and a maximum rate increase of 1.8%.
Table 2.1 summarizes proposed rate increases effective January 1, 2026, and displays significant factors driving the proposed rate increases. Note that this rate buildup is illustrative of changes occurring from 2025 to 2026, and is therefore not reflective of factors displayed in Worksheet 1, Section II of the URRT, which pertains to changes from the experience period (2024) to the projection period (2026). Factors found in The URRT are discussed in later sections.
Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.
Hawaii Medical Service Association:
Our requested rates include only the amounts needed to cover the expected health care benefits of our members, the cost of administering their benefits, expected Affordable Care Act (ACA) fees, and a small charge to help manage the risk of offering benefits to this population.
We based our rate increase request on a review of past costs of benefits and other expenses. These historical costs are adjusted for trend, to account for expected changes in use of medical services, cost inflation, and other factors that affect the cost of care. We also adjusted costs for benefit changes, which were largely made to comply with government mandated plan designs. Administrative expenses have been relatively flat over the past couple of years.
(Unfortunately, no rate justification summary is available, and the full actuarial memo is heavily redacted. Policy enrollees are estimated based on marketwide estimated enrollment; see below.)
Banner/Aetna CVS:
(Dropping out of the individual market for 2026.)
Blue Cross Blue Shield of AZ:
BCBSAZ is filing an average rate increase for plans in the Arizona Individual market of 29.88%, varying between 14.7% and 38.6%, excluding federally prescribed age factors. The average increase is calculated from the most recently implemented rates which were effective January 1, 2025. This increase will be effective on January 1, 2026 and will affect 71,871 Arizona policyholders (as of March 2025).
