Charles Gaba's blog

It was just a couple of weeks ago that the official (if preliminary) 2026 ACA individual market rate filings for Wyoming insurance carriers went live on the federal rate review website.

I published a writeup about these just 3 days ago; unlike some states, Wyoming was pretty easy to break out as they only have three carriers on the indy market, all of which also made their current enrollment data easy to find.

The landscape isn't pretty: BCBS is seeking average rate increases of 20.7%; UHC wants 29.1%, and Mountain Health Co-Op, which has around 9,600 enrollees, was asking for a whopping 32% average premium hike.

Keep in mind that Wyoming already has among the most expensive individual market policies in the country, with premiums averaging over $1,000/month.

8/15/25: See important update below re. total enrollment

Overall preliminary rate changes via the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Aetna Health inc:

(Aetna/CVS announced last spring that they're pulling out of the individual market in EVERY state in 2026.)

AmeriHealth Caritas Florida:

Amerihealth Caritas Florida, Inc. (AHC) has offered comprehensive and fully insured coverage to members in the individual ACA market since 2023. AHC is filing a rate increase for 2026 products. The plans associated with this filing will be offered both on and off the Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) in Florida.

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, California Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Aetna/CVS

(Aetna/CVS is pulling out of the entire individual market nationally)

Anthem Blue Cross of CA (DMHC)

This is a rate filing for the Individual market ACA‐compliant plans offered by Anthem Blue Cross (Anthem). The proposed rates in this filing will be effective for the 2026 plan year beginning January 1, 2026, and apply to plans both On‐Exchange and Off‐Exchange.

Anthem will continue to participate in its 2025 marketplace footprint consisting of rating areas 1-10 and 12-14 with EPO plans and rating areas 11 and 15‐19 with HMO plans.

Originally posted 2/2/25

Wyoming has ~46,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most). Combined, that's around 8% of their total population.

(Note, however, that the official actuarial rate filings for the 3 carriers offering coverage in the Wyoming individual market only report a combined total of around 39,000 enrollees as of spring 2025, or 6.6% of the total population).

Originally posted 2/05/25

Alaska has around ~28,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees in ACA-compliant individual market policies. Overall, including net attrition, I estimate their total enrollment both on & off exchange to be perhaps ~27,000 or so.

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Wyoming Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Blue Cross Blue Shield of WY

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Wyoming (BCBSWY) has offered comprehensive and fully insured coverage to members in the Individual ACA market since 2014. BCBSWY is filing a rate increase for 2026 products. All plans will be offered statewide; plans with be offered either on or off the Federally Facilitated Marketplace in Wyoming.

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Wisconsin Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Aspirus Arise Health Plan of WI

The average proposed rate increase of 12.6%, effective January 1, 2026 is expected to impact 13,677 members, based on membership as of March 31, 2025. The rate increase varies by plan, ranging between 4.4% and 20.5%. Rate changes vary by plan due to the impact of changes in benefits and rating adjustments to account for the non-funding of Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) payments.

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Alaska Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Moda Assurance Co:

(Moda has heavily redacted their actuarial memo and isn't providing the number of current enrollees)

The average rate change is X.XX% as shown on Worksheet 2 of the URRT. The proposed rate Proposed Rate Increase change varies by product and plan, and the proposed rates vary by plan, age, geographic area, and tobacco use. The average rate change was calculated by comparing the weighted average premium for members on current plans and rates to the weighted average premium for members on renewal plans and rates.

A summary of the major components and their contribution to the rate change is provided in the table below.

Components of the rate change / % Impact

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Virginia Bureau of Insurance and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Aetna Health:

(Aetna/CVS is dropping out of the entire individual market nationally in response to Congressional Republicans allowing the upgraded ACA subsidies to expire):

...This letter is formal notice that Aetna Health Inc. (“AHI”) intends to exit from the Individual health insurance market in Virginia effective January 1, 2026. Subject to the Department’s review, we will mail the 180-day notices of discontinuance to covered individuals.

As of May 2025, our records show that AHI has 9,810 subscribers and 13,721 total members in Virginia.

Anthem Health Plans of VA:

I still have the preliminary 2026 rate filings to analyze for about 10 more states, but I'm taking a break to go back and revisit ARKANSAS.

Back on July 18th, I posted my original analysis of ACA-compliant individual & small group market filings for Arkansas insurance carriers. At the time, I found that the weighted average increases being requested for individual market policies averaged a disturbingly high 26.2%. Here's what the breakout looked like:

This is pretty bad, of course, especially when paired with the expiration of the improved IRA financial subsidies as well as the modified PAPI formula, which is what determines the Applicable Percentage Table.

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