APTC

Via the Massachusetts Division of Insurance:

Merged Market Summary for Proposed Rates Effective for 2026

The following tables depict the proposed overall weighted average premium increase and the key assumptions behind premium development for the merged (individual and small employer) market filed by insurance carriers as part of the Massachusetts Division of Insurance rate review process (for rates effective in 2026). This information is subject to change as the rate review process continues.

The Health Care Access Bureau within the Massachusetts Division of Insurance is currently reviewing these assumptions. This review process will culminate in a final decision in August 2025.

There are 711,563 consumers enrolled in merged (individual/small group) market plans (data as of December 2024).

This actually came out a couple of weeks ago but ironically, I've been too swamped analyzing & posting 2026 rate filings for other states to get around to posting it here until now.

Covered California has officially confirmed the preliminary 2026 ACA individual market rate hikes, and the weighted average (10.3% statewide) is nearly identical to what I had it at  a few days prior to their press release (10.2%).

Via CoveredCA:

August 14, 2025

Covered California Rates and Plans for 2026: Consumer Affordability on the Line with Uncertainty Surrounding Federal Premium Tax Credit Extension

La versión en español de este Comunicado puede ser descargada en este enlace.

Originally posted 1/30/25

Vermont has around ~32,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~35,000 people, although the official carrier rate filings claim it's more like 36,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/12/24

Washington State has around ~308,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 73% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~29,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~338,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 305,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/07/25

Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~652,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 609,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/17/24

Utah has around ~421,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~17,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~438,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 410,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/15/24

Rhode Island has around ~42,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~45,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 42,000 statewide.

Originally posted 2/4/25

West Virginia has ~67,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most).

Originally posted 12/30/24

New Jersey has around ~513,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 85% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~76,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~590,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 550,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/26/25

Illinois has around ~466,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 90% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~57,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~523,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 488,000 statewide.