Last winter, I initiated an ambitious project in which I generated graphics to illustrate just how much net ACA premiums are likely to increase starting on January 1st, 2026 (slightly over 5 months from today) assuming the enhanced premium subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act over the past several years are allowed to expire.
This project took several months to complete, as I had to generate both tables and bar graphs for all 50 states (+DC), using 4 different households at multiple income brackets for each. All told, that's over 1,600 different examples.
I made sure to include various caveats for these projections. For instance, each of these examples assumes...
Insurance companies offering individual and small group health insurance plans are required to file proposed rates with the Arkansas Insurance Department for review and approval before plans can be sold to consumers.
The Department reviews rates to ensure that the plans are priced appropriately. Under Arkansas Law (Ark. Code Ann. § 23-79-110), the Commissioner shall disapprove a rate filing if he/she finds that the rate is not actuarially sound, is excessive, is inadequate, or is unfairly discriminatory.
The Department relies on outside actuarial analysis by a member of the American Academy of Actuaries to help determine whether a rate filing is sound.
Below, you can review information on the proposed rate filings for Plan Year 2026 individual and small group products that comply with the reforms of the Affordable Care Act.
Chaos from Congressional Republicans Leads to Average Premium Increases of Over 28% for 2026
Average increases as high as 38% have been requested for the Western Slope, and insurance companies estimate nearly 100,000 Coloradans will lose their health insurance coverage
DENVER - The Colorado Division of Insurance (DOI), part of the Department of Regulatory Agencies (DORA) released the preliminary information on private health insurance plans for 2026 for the individual market (for people that don’t get coverage from an employer plan). The filings will be public once the DOI finishes the preliminary completeness review on or about Friday, July 18.
Every year around this time I start my annual individual & small group market rate filing analysis project. This involves spending months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the upcoming year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to change.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier: How many effectuated enrollees they have in ACA-compliant policies this year; the average projected rate change for those policies; and, ideally, a breakout of the rationale behind the changes.
Usually the reasons given are fairly vague things like "increased morbidity" (ie, a sicker risk pool) or the like. Sometimes, however, there's a very specific reason given for some or all of the premium changes. Major examples of this include:
Every year around this time I start my annual individual & small group market rate filing analysis project. This involves spending months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the upcoming year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to change.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier: How many effectuated enrollees they have in ACA-compliant policies this year; the average projected rate change for those policies; and, ideally, a breakout of the rationale behind the changes.
Usually the reasons given are fairly vague things like "increased morbidity" (ie, a sicker risk pool) or the like. Sometimes, however, there's a very specific reason given for some or all of the premium changes. Major examples of this include:
