Just moments ago, CoveredCA head Peter Lee held a conference call in which he issued the first full 2015 open enrollment period data (until now, the only number released was 11,357 QHPs in the first 4 days...except that only included new enrollees, not renewals).
As I noted yesterday, I estimated appx. 397K QHPs through Monday (12/08). I'm also guessing it'll be about a 55/45 split between renewals of existing enrollees & new additions.
The actual number of NEW QHP enrollments turns out to be: From 11/15 - 12/03: 130K determined elgiible, of whom 48,950 have selected plans...
Hmmm. Well, now...on the surface, this makes it look like I was way off, overestimating by a whopping 8-fold factor.
HOWEVER, there are two rather important (and unexpected) points which make that comparison impossible:
I've received official confirmation that CoveredCA will give their first official 2015 Open Enrollment Period data report tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.
I'm gonna take a stab at their number:
IF I'm correct that Healthcare.Gov hit 1.35 million QHP selections as of 12/05, and
IF I'm further correct that Healthcare.Gov is consistently making up appx. 75% of the national total at any given time, and
IF I'm further correct that the total QHP selections as of 12/08 hit around 2.21 million, and
IF I'm also correct that CoveredCA is making up appx. 18% of the national total, THEN...
...CoveredCA's total through 12/08/14 should be around 397,000 QHP selections.
It's also important to remember that unlike HC.gov, CoveredCA was (for the most part, anyway) fully operational from the beginning last year, which makes this a reasonable apples-to-apples comparison.
When I last checked in on ACA Medicaid expansion in California back in mid-September, it had reached a whopping 2.2 million...or possibly as high as 2.55 million, depending on whether the number included a massive backlog of 350,000 CA residents.
Well, it now seems that not only has that question been answered, but the grand total is a bit higher yet: 2.6 million low-income Californians can thank Obamacare for their newfound healthcare coverage:
The state Medi-Cal system has taken on 2.7 million more Californians since October 2013.
That's an increase of 31% from the 8.6 million previously enrolled. The jump brings the current number of Californians in the Medi-Cal program to 11.3 million -- roughly 30% of the state's population. Medi-Cal is California's Medicaid program.
There's been a lot of fuss made about 2015 ACA exchange premium rates not being available at Healthcare.Gov until after the election. The presumption, of course, is that this is being done for political reasons. While this may be true, it could also simply be that there's a lot of different policy figures to plug into the federal system, and some states haven't even finalized their rates yet.
That being said, residents of some states can check out the 2015 premiums now and compare them against their current premium:
IDAHO: Idaho is the only state moving from HC.gov to their own exchange. Idaho residents can check out their 2015 rates directly via the state exchange site.
CLARKSTON, WA – Leaders with Washington’s Health Care Exchange are preparing for the second open enrollment period, but at the same time they are still working on resolving billing and computer problems for 1,300 accounts from the first sign-up period.
This is very confusingly worded, because it makes it sound like all 3 companies have been operating on the HC.gov exchange when it turns out that only 2 of them have. Wellmark did not participate in the ACA exchange; the 19,000 customers referred to here have off-exchange policies which are still ACA-compliant:
Commissioner Nick Gerhart said today that he has approved premium increases from Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield, CoOportunity Health and Coventry Health.
I still have to sort through a bunch of data, but the main takeaway is this:
I projected the total California QHP enrollment figure to be around 1.68 million. The actual number is 1,414,668 (as of 4/15...see update at bottom of this page)plus 200,000 off-season enrollments from 6/1 - 9/30 plus an unknown number from the 46 days between 4/16 - 5/31.
I have no idea why they left those 46 days out of the press conference. Very odd.
There were 200,000 people who enrolled from June 1st - September 30th (122 days), or 1,639 people per day.
Assuming the missing 46 days saw a similar rate to the rest of the off-season period, that would be 1,639 x 46 = 75,394 additional enrollees.
Assuming this is correct, that's 1,614,668 + 75,394 = 1,690,062
Regular readers know that given the HHS Dept's going radio silent on the total ACA enrollment figures since the last official report was released back in May (which only ran through April 19th), I've been patching together bits and pieces of enrollment data from a handful of state exchanges, plus the occasional snippet of info from other states which has managed to find daylight from time to time.
Based on this, I've been projecting roughly 9,000 QHP enrollments being added per day during the off-season, translating into around 270,000 per month, of which about 90% eventually pay their first months premium. That translates to around 240K paid enrollees being added per month, which in turn is being roughly cancelled out by people dropping their policies after the first few months as they move on to other types of coverage (Medicare, ESI, Medicaid and so forth). Based on these estimates, there should now be a gross total of around 9.6 million enrollments, of which around 8.3 million have paid their first premium, and around 7.4 million who are currently enrolled as of October.
I'm pleased to announce that as ACASignups.net enters its' second year in operation, I've also started writing occasional pieces for healthinsurance.org:
Since 1994, healthinsurance.org has been a guide for consumers seeking straightforward explanations about the workings of individual health insurance– also known as medical insurance – and help finding affordable coverage.
The topic of insurance can be confusing, but we’re here with more information than ever: educational articles, expert health policy analysis, frequently asked questions about reform, a health insurance glossary, and guides to the health marketplaces and other insurance resources in each state.
I can't think of another publication outside of this one where what I do here is more appropriate. Looking at the list of other contributors, I'm honored to join their company.
My debut contribution to healthinsurance.org is an update regarding the citizenship/immigration data situation for Covered California enrollees...and the implications it may have for the rest of the country. Please take a look!
Don't Feed the Trolls: A Special Entry for a Special Visitor
...A few days ago, I broke the cardinal rule of blogging and social media: I fed a troll. Specifically, I engaged in a back & forth with a guy who insisted that I don't have any clue what I'm talking about, that I "don't cite my sources" (insane, since every one of my sources is meticulously cited, dated and linked to)...and, in particular, that I'm "lying" about the number of California residents who have "fully" enrolled in exchange-based QHPs in California (and by extension, nationally). If you check the recent Disqus comments you'll see him pop up a few times today.
At first, he was arguing the "But how many have PAID???" line, which I've repeatedly addressed.
Interestingly, he was finally willing to (grudgingly) concede that yes, around 85% of "full enrollments" have indeed been paid to date.
However, he still insisted that the number of "full" enrollments only "counts" if the policy has actually been issued:
