I've stressed, over and over again, that my 12.5 million "by midnight February 15th" national QHP selection estimate assumed that there would be no further significant technical problems at Healthcare.Gov or the other exchanges.
As it happens, a couple of states (Washington in particular) have been having "significant technical problems" throughout the enrollment period after all, but nothing that would impact the overall numbers by more than perhaps 100K total...and HC.gov has been smooth sailing the entire way.
Consumers had difficulty submitting their applications for health insurance on Healthcare.gov just one day before this year's deadline, a Health Department official said Saturday.
"Some consumers have been unable to submit their application because their income is unable to be verified as a result of intermittent issues with external verification sources," the Department of Health and Human Services official said.
OK, CoveredCA had hit 1.314M as of Wednesday, and added about 46,000 more on Thursday & Friday (21K & 25K respectively) to reach 1.36 million as of last night.
That means they'd have to enroll a whopping 340K today and tomorrow, or 170K each day, to reach their 1.7M target. To reach my own just-lowered target of 1.6 million, they'd have to enroll 120K/day, which might be feasible.
Of course, with the extra 5 day "waiting in line" extension, they might be able to pull off one or the other.
As of last Monday, Colorado reported 128,000 enrollments in 2015. About three-fourths of those are returning customers , with about a fourth being new customers.
OK, so that's an increase of around 2,622. However, the "...as of last Monday" bit is confusing. To me, saying "last Monday" on a Friday refers to the prior Monday (ie, 2/02 in this case). However, that would suggest that CO enrolled over 1,300 per day for 2 days in a row. The state was only averaging 233/day over the prior couple of weeks, which means they'd have to have ramped up over 5.5x, which is possible (a few other states have pulled this off).
The DC exchange may be small, but every person counts. The only irritating thing about their reports is that they always refer to them as being cumulative since October 2013, instead of only counting those who have enrolled or renewed their policies since 11/15/14. I went through this a few weeks back and concluded that yes, the numbers below are accurate for 2015:
More Than 80,500 People Enrolled in Health Coverage Through DC Health Link
Friday, February 13, 2015
Enrollment
From October 1, 2013 to February 8, 2015, 80,578 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private insurance or Medicaid:
20,358 people enrolled in a private qualified health plan,
44,457 people have been determined eligible for Medicaid, and
15,763 people enrolled through the DC Health Link small business marketplace (includes Congressional enrollment).
And so, the Open Enrollment Period extensions are officially underway. I was expecting underperforming states like Washington and Minnesota to be the first out of the gate, but instead, the first three states to make formal announcements are California, Massachusetts and now, New York:
California: Yesterday, CoveredCA announced a 5-day "Waiting in Line" extension policy (ie, as long as you've started the enrollment process as of midnight on Sunday 2/15, you'll have until Friday, 2/20 to complete the process.
Massachusetts: Just a few hours ago, the MA Health Connector announced that due to getting slammed with 3 massive snowstorms in the past few weeks, as well as a 4th major one sweeping in right now, they're bumping out the full enrollment period (ie, no "have to be in line already" caveat) by a full 8 days, until February 23rd.
And just this moment, the New York State of Health has announced that like California, they're going the "Waiting in Line" route: Anyone who starts the process by midnight Sunday will have until February 28th to actually select a plan and check out. It's important to note that NY residents who enroll between 2/16 - 2/28 won't have their policy kick in until April 1st, however.
This is something of an exclusive: I've received official notice from the Maryland Health Connection exchange that as of last night, their enrollment totals stood at:
Not as dramatic of a surge as some other states, but then again, with today's update, Maryland is already 2% higher than my target number (105K), which was in turn 19% higher than the HHS Dept's target number (88K), which itself was 30% higher than their 2014 total (67,757).
OK, first, the official data updates: The MA Health Connector issued their weekly report, confirming 125,651 QHP selections to date, of which 82.2% have paid their first premium. The payment rate hasgone down as expected, since the denominator (March 1st enrollments) has started shooting up while the numerator (payments made) has gone up more slowly...since those payments aren't even due until the 23rd anyway.
Compared to the past 2 weeks, you can see the final surge has definitely kicked in:
