So, as expected, both the Senate Democrats bill to simply extend the enhanced ACA tax credits for 3 more years and the Senate Republican bill to make everything worse just failed to reach cloture (appropriately enough, they both received the exact same vote counts: 51-48).
Sen. Rand Paul voted against the GOP bill and 4 Republicans voting for the Democrat's bill, including Sen. Josh Hawley, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Sen. Dan Sullivan & Sen. Susan Collins voting for it. I'm not sure who the missing vote in each was, not that it matters much now.
So, now what?
Well, the House may end up voting on one of their dozen or so bills they've been tossing around, but I wouldn't count on it, and even if one of them passes, it'd be almost certain to fail in the Senate.
With just 4 more days before the initial December 15th deadline to enroll for coverage starting in January, only a weeks' worth of legislative session days before the holiday break, and just 20 days before the enhanced subsidies actually expire on New Year's Eve, it's looking grim.
OK, I know I said I wasn't gonna do a deep dive into any more last-ditch GOP bills ahead of tomorrow's big Senate vote, but this one looks intriguing...but not just for the reasons you might think.
Earlier today, GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans & Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer introduced Yet Another short-term enhanced ACA tax credit extension bill...but this one has some very interesting twists.
The mounting support for the legislation, offered by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), comes as House GOP moderates expressed frustration in a conference meeting Wednesday morning over their leadership’s proposals to address spiking health insurance premiums — without dealing with the expiring tax credits.
There are 43 U.S. House districts where the Republican nominee won by 15 points or less. Of those, one (WA-04) doesn't really count since there were 2 Republicans running in the general election (Washington State has "jungle primaries"). Four others were won by Donald Trump by between 16 - 20 points (AZ-08, CO-04, TX-15 & WI-08).
That leaves 38 GOP-held House seats where the Republican won by 15 pts or less and where either Kamala Harris won, or Donald Trump also won by 15 points or less. The table below breaks these out with both margins, while also listing my estimate of how many residents of each district are enrolled in ACA coverage.
To: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy From: Tony Fabrizio & Bob Ward
Date: July 14, 2025
Re: Expiration of Premium Tax Credits Survey – Targeted Congressional Districts
Our survey of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts shows Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves. Without Congressional action, the tax credit expires this year.
For nearly a year now I've been shouting from the rooftops about the eye-popping net premium hikes which millions of ACA enrollees are going to see starting one month from today, assuming the enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits (eAPTC) which have been in place for the past five years are allowed to expire on New Year's Eve.
I've put together 51 bar graphs showing examples of what these net premium increases will look like for various households at different income levels in every state. Since there's so many variables from state to state including different Rating Areas, different levels of carrier participation, different provider networks and different benchmark Silver plans from county to county (and even from zip code to zip code), I decided to use the capital city of each state as my rule of thumb.
For the households, I went with four case studies: A single 50-yr old adult w/no dependents; a 30-yr old single parent with one child; a "nuclear family" (40-yr old couple with two kids age 15 & 12); and a pre-retiree couple (64 yrs old, just shy of Medicare eligibility age).
At a bare, bare minimum, do not settle for a one- or two-year extension of the eAPTCs.
Kicking this particular can down the road for only one or two years would not only be an absolute gift to Republicans politically (since it would push the pain out until just past the midterms, which is of course the only reason why any Republicans are willing to discuss doing so at all), but it would also mean we'd be right back here with the exact same scary headlines a year or two from now, with 24 million people never knowing whether their health insurance premiums are going to skyrocket from year to year.
Nothing is worse for the insurance industry than uncertainty, and anytime they're uncertain about anything you can be sure they'll jack up rates as a "just in case" cushion.
Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 800 likely voters on November 18, 2025, conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, across 16 GOP-held battleground districts rated Toss Up or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Company’s HR Manager Really Pushing Infinite-Deductible Health Care Plan
During a meeting with new hires Wednesday to discuss employee benefits, Radian Analytics human resources manager Ellen Schultz is said to have strongly pushed the company’s infinite-deductible health care option.
According to sources in attendance, Schultz described the low-premium, infinite-deductible plan as the simplest and most convenient choice available to employees, and said it works the same whether plan members need to visit their primary care physician, fill a prescription, or be admitted to a hospital, allowing them in each case to pay 100 percent of the incurred medical expenses.
With the ongoing budget battle approaching the Sept. 30th federal government shut down deadline, U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) and U.S. Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03) have formally introduced a bicameral Continuing Resolution bill to fund the government for an extra month to buy more time to negotiate and avoid a shutdown by the Republican-controlled federal government:
Today, Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair, and Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03), House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member, introduced a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded and allow negotiations to continue over full-year bills that ensure Congress, not President Trump or Russ Vought, decide how taxpayer dollars are spent. The CR also addresses the health care crisis Republicans have single-handedly created and protects Congress’ power of the purse, rejecting President Trump’s illegal “pocket rescission.”
