IRA

Originally posted 1/02/25

Kansas has around 200,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~206,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be down to more like 192,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/14/24

Kentucky has around 97,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,800 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 104,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 97,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/09/24

Indiana has around 359,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 90% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,700 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees

Combined, that's 5.3% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Indiana, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 341,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/11/24

Iowa has around 136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,600 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's over 146,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be down to more like 136,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/31/24

Hawaii has around 26,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 83% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~1,700 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 1.8% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Hawaii, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 24,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/18/24

Idaho has around 117,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees, although the actual rate filings (summarized later in this post) put the off-exchange total at a much higher ~47,000.

Combined, that's 6.2 - 8.0% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Idaho, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 118,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/10/2025

Alabama has around 477,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 96% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps another ~33,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 9.9% of their total population.

Assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate thru April reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services applies to Alabama, however, that would knock the current enrollment down to more like 477,000 statewide.

Originally posted 6/11/25

via the Maine Bureau of Insurance:

Each year insurers that sell Individual and Small Group plans in Maine's pooled risk market must submit their proposed forms and rates to the Bureau of Insurance, using the System for Electronic Rate and Form Filing (SERFF). Details of the filings submitted to the state since June 10, 2010 can be viewed in the system.

Anthem Health Plans of Maine:

The proposed rates have been developed from 2024 Individual and Small Group ACA combined experience, and the proposed average annual rate change at the Merged Market level is 18.0%.

The proposed annual rate changes by product for Individual range from 17.9% to 20.6%, with rate changes by plan from 10.1% to 30.0%. These ranges are based on the renewing plans, and are consistent with what is reported in the Unified Rate Review Template. Exhibit A shows the rate change for each plan.

Factors that affect the rate changes for all plans include:

Originally posted 2/2/25

Wyoming has ~46,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees (likely only a few thousand at most). Combined, that's around 8% of their total population.

(Note, however, that the official actuarial rate filings for the 3 carriers offering coverage in the Wyoming individual market only report a combined total of around 39,000 enrollees as of spring 2025, or 6.6% of the total population).

Originally posted 2/05/25

Alaska has around ~28,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees in ACA-compliant individual market policies. Overall, including net attrition, I estimate their total enrollment both on & off exchange to be perhaps ~27,000 or so.

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